How much risk does Shields carry?

We will have a new AD at the first of the year. That means he will get to watch Shields as coach for one conference season, plus he will have the data from his previous seasons. I feel sure that no AD is going to want to come in and start firing people right off the bat, but then he may also want to make a statement. So how much risk does Shields have? Does a Top Three finish keep him on the job? He has a veteran roster, so I am guessing that anything much below that will put him in jeopardy. A Sun Belt coach could recruit his entire career and not get the talent that Georgia State has, so I am guessing that he does not have to beat them to keep his job. My gut feel is that Steve will have a little bit of slack since the AD is new - but not much.