Sunday, December 28, 2014

My "official" prediction going into conference

We are a couple of days away from our conference opener, so I guess I need to stick out my neck and make a prediction.

For a while I thought we would have the talent to be in the Top Three in the Belt, and in some areas we do have some outstanding strengths. Our array of 3-point shooters is more than solid, and our three point guards have been above expectations so far in their A/TO ratios. So our guard play ought to be good. In fact, with the exception of Georgia State, we should be able to hold our own with any of the teams ("should" being the operative word). We have a lot of weapons on the perimeter.

Our front line, however, is in shambles. In the first place, James White, who was expected to be All-Belt caliber, has suddenly lost his shot. Completely. Averaging 33% over the last five games, which is disastrous for an inside player. He is still rebounding fairly well, but as an offensive force he has disappeared. Roger Moore is still dependable as an undersized four, but after that things just fall off drastically. We are just so undersized among our forwards. Mareik Isom is tall, but he is essentially a perimeter player. Gus Leeper is big, but he is getting little playing time lately.

So my prediction (drumroll): we will finish in the middle of the pack, maybe above .500, but probably not, and Steve Shields will be VERY nervous going into his post-season evaluation with the new AD.

Obviously, if we beat ULL and Georgia State in the first two games, I will be tearing up this prediction, but hindsight predictions are not worth anything, and I definitely do not expect that.

No comments: