Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Unwarranted prejudice

When schools from non-power conferences make it to the NCAA tournament, there seems to be a built-in prejudice against them because "their schedule is weak." Of course (providing they can get the big schools to play them), they can play a tough non-conference schedule, but once conference begins they are limited to those in their conference. Therein lies the problem for non-power conference schools. (Folks conveniently ignore the fact that the bottom half of a lot of power conferences are not very good.)

But if we are projecting whether a team will do well in the NCAA tournament, one of the main things we look at are how likely a team is to avoid losing. That sounds simplistic, but it makes sense when you think about it. When a #16 seed is playing a #1 seed, the main problem for the #1 seed  is to avoid having a terrible off night. If they play at their normal ability, they ought not to lose; but they have to play at their normal ability.

So, if very good team from a lower level conference makes the tournament, and did well in a tough non-conference schedule, and avoided losing in an easier conference schedule, isn't that what teams are supposed to do in the Tournament? They have to avoid losing the early games they are supposed to win, and win in the games where there might be some doubt. So why should there be any prejudice against them? Most of the power conference schools pad their schedules in non-conference with "buy a win" games, but fans apparently don't look down their noses at them for doing that.


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