You know who you lost and how good they were. You know who you return and how good they were, and you factor in some degree of improvement. So far, so good. You know how good your recruits were in another context, but factoring in how good they may be here is much more difficult (unless they are transfers). You figure you will have some injuries or off-court issues, but you cannot factor those in because you do not know for sure they will happen. With all that, you add a pinch of gut feel, and let fly with your prediction.
This year's team has been relatively easy to predict (for better or for worse) because we have ten returning players and one recruit who has played a year in D1.
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