Tuesday, April 1, 2014

The dark side of the arc

As we well remember, Denver's Princeton offense lives by the 3 point shot. They shoot it a lot, and they shoot it very well. This past season, 42% of their attempts were from the arc, and they hit an outstanding 38.7% of those attempts. Pretty impressive. But, they were only 16-15 overall, 8-6 in the Summit League. Why no better than that with such outstanding shooting? Well, it is because the 3-point shot has an Achilles heel.

Denver shot 175 less free throws than their opponents, or 5.6 attempts per game. Three-point teams do not gather many fouls. Plus, on the other side of the ledger, they committed 120 more fouls than their opponents, which means their opponents were in less foul trouble than they were. Plus, 3-point teams usually do not rebound as well, and Denver (as always) did not. They were beat on the boards by 5.3 per game. Yes, the three-point shot gets half again as many points (IF you make it, which you do not as often as other shots), but it does not go to the line as much, it does not get your opponents in foul trouble as much, and it typically surrenders the boards more. There is a dark side to the arc.

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