We are 18-2 with eleven regular season games left. If we lose one more regular season game, that would put us at 28-3. I assume that would give us a bye to the semis, so if we won there and lost in the finals, we would be 29-4. I just do not know if that would get us an At-large or not.
As things stand now, we have wins over San Diego State (RPI #50) and Tulsa (#62) - good, but not great. The toughest opponent remaining is Arlington at #102. Our loss to #32 Texas Tech won't hurt us, but the one to #204 Arkansas State will. Right now our schedule ranks 226th according to Sagarin, which will really hurt us.
If we win out to the finals, we might stand a chance of an at-large. But if we lose another one, I am afraid we need to plan on winning the tournament (which I hope we do, anyway, of course). Louisiana Tech had a similar situation a couple of years ago and missed out, and their conference is a little more highly-regarded than ours. The Bubble Watch sites will be cranking up here before long, so we will get some more expert opinions. It will be a nice compliment even to be on those watches.
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