Back when I used to make predictions for the upcoming SBC season, one of the factors I weighted most heavily was returning starters. I took a little razzing because of that, especially when the starters the previous year had not been very good.
However. . . . ESPN just analyzed this year's pre-season BPI rankings, and had this comment: "The reason behind both Duke and Kentucky's lower-than-expected rankings is the fact the model heavily weighs returning production, as history shows returning starters do better than five-star freshmen in general." Aha! The old man was right, after all.
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