Thursday, January 5, 2017

The statistical difference

Basketball is quantifiable to a large extent. The box score must capture the results of each possession, and when possessions, turnovers, fouls, shooting percentages, etc., are factored in, the result must be the final score. So what are the differences between this year and last?
+++

This year's team is scoring more, by about 2 points per game. We are allowing about 8 points more per game. We had three players who averaged double figures last year, and we have five this year.

The overall shooting percentage both years is virtually the same. Last year we shot about 3 percentage points higher from the arc, and we shot about 2 more three-pointers per game than this year. The FT% is virtually the same.

Defensively, we are allowing opponents to shoot more than 4 points better this year overall, and also more than 4 points better from the arc.

Our rebounding is significantly better this year. We are plus-4 this year, whereas we were even last year. Most of that can be accounted for in the improvement of Shoshi, who has gone from 5.5 rpg last season to 8.0 this year.

We have decreased in assists/game from 13.0 to 12.5. Assists per game by the primary point guard decreased from 4.8 with Hagins to 2.6 with Johnson. Our turnovers have increased from 10.5 per game to 12.7. (However, Johnson's turnovers per game are slightly less than Hagins'.) We have slightly more blocks and slightly fewer steals this year.

BOTTOM LINE
So, what are the differences that jump out? 1. Our defense is much weaker this year than last. 2. Last year's team was a better 3-point shooting team. 3. This year we are significantly better on the boards. 4. We get less baskets through assists this year, particularly from the point guard. 5. We are turning over the ball more this year.

So, two of those differences (2 and 4) are directly or indirectly attributable to the absence of Hagins (and perhaps this year of Watkins). The other two may be the result of coaching emphases in the schemes that each uses. Flanagan may put more emphasis on rebounding, and less on defense than did Beard.

No comments: